VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Schalke 04

2/3/2021

DFB Pokal · Round of 16VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg29%

×Draw22%

FC Schalke 0449%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.01

VfL Wolfsburg

1.52

FC Schalke 04

2.01

FC Schalke 04 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

2.86

1.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.67

FC Schalke 04

2.86

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.17

FC Schalke 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

51%

VfL Wolfsburg or FC Schalke 04

78%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

71%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

14%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

78%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

45%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

20%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

87%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

59%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

37%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.67 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Schalke 04 attack 2.86 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

29%

level

22%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

49%

FC Schalke 04 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff