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FC Schalke 04 vs VfL Wolfsburg — Bundesliga 2018

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
2/10/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 20VELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Schalke 0431%
×Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schalke 04
1.34
VfL Wolfsburg
1.66

VfL Wolfsburg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Schalke 04
1.07
VfL Wolfsburg
1.47

allows per match

FC Schalke 04
1.84
VfL Wolfsburg
1.61

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par
VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw
55%
FC Schalke 04 or VfL Wolfsburg
76%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg
69%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
14%
VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
74%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
39%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
15%
VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
81%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
49%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
41%
VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.61 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.07 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.47 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more
31%
level
24%
VfL Wolfsburg scores more
45%

VfL Wolfsburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Schalke 04 vs VfL Wolfsburg

FC Schalke 04 and VfL Wolfsburg drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at VELTINS-Arena in Gelsenkirchen.