Vfl Bochum 1–0 RB Leipzig: Result & Stats

Vfl Bochum

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig

E. Mašović 48'

3/18/2023

Bundesliga · Round 25Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Vfl Bochum38%

×Draw24%

RB Leipzig38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchRB Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Vfl Bochum

1.50

RB Leipzig

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

1.51

creates per match

1.50

1.49

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

1.51

RB Leipzig

1.50

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.49

RB Leipzig

1.50

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Vfl Bochum+0.07on par

RB Leipzig-0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

RB Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

62%

Vfl Bochum or RB Leipzig

76%

Draw or RB Leipzig

62%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

18%

RB Leipzig wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

78%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

44%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

19%

RB Leipzig 1+ goals

78%

RB Leipzig 2+ goals

44%

RB Leipzig 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

50%

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 1.51 + RB Leipzig defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

RB Leipzig attack 1.50 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

38%

level

24%

RB Leipzig scores more

38%

Vfl Bochum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Riemann

Vfl Bochum · G

9.0

Match Events

11'

14'

44'

48'

58'

D. Heintz← Danilo Soares

68'

E. Forsberg← Y. Poulsen

69'

G. Holtmann← C. Antwi-Adjei

70'

P. Förster← K. Stöger

70'

P. Kunde← T. Asano

71'

B. Henrichs← M. Simakan

71'

Dani Olmo← T. Werner

75'

Dani Olmo

82'

A. Haidara← K. Laimer

82'

D. Raum← M. Halstenberg

86'

Kevin Kampl

87'

V. Lampropoulos← P. Osterhage

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VflRB

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots22

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.85

2Corners7

11Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots22

2On Target8

3Off Target7

3Blocked7

5Inside Box15

3Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

295Total Passes543

196Accurate Passes449

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3