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RB Leipzig vs Vfl Bochum — DFB Pokal 2018

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzigadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
Y. Poulsen 75', 66'
M. Sabitzer 45+1' (pen)
A. Haidara 10'
2/3/2021DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

RB Leipzig51%
×Draw25%
Vfl Bochum25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
1.63
Vfl Bochum
1.06

RB Leipzig creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
2.25
Vfl Bochum
1.38

allows per match

RB Leipzig
0.75
Vfl Bochum
1.00

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.00on par
Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
75%
RB Leipzig or Vfl Bochum
75%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
49%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
27%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
80%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
48%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
22%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
65%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
29%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
67%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 2.25 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vfl Bochum attack 1.38 + RB Leipzig defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
51%
level
25%
Vfl Bochum scores more
25%

RB Leipzig at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Y. PoulsenRB LeipzigRB Leipzig · F
8.6

Match Events

10'
A. Haidara↳ M. Sabitzer
24'
Erhan Mašović
45'
Patrick Drewes
45+1'
M. SabitzerPenalty
46'
Hwang Hee-Chan← L. Samardžić
46'
R. Chibsah← E. Mašović
60'
Angeliño
61'
S. Zoller← M. Pantović
61'
R. Zulj← T. Eisfeld
61'
H. Bockhorn← G. Holtmann
63'
Danilo Soares
65'
Daniel Olmo← C. Nkunku
65'
N. Mukiele← L. Klostermann
66'
Y. Poulsen↳ Daniel Olmo
74'
J. Wosz← M. Sabitzer
75'
Y. Poulsen↳ Angeliño
76'
A. Sørloth← Y. Poulsen
86'
S. Novothny← S. Ganvoula
87'
Raman Chibsah
88'
Hee-Chan Hwang

Possession

55%RB

Shots

20RB

Pass accuracy

51%RB

Statistics

RBVfl
Overview
55%Possession45%
20Total Shots2
5Corners1
8Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots2
6On Target0
11Off Target2
3Blocked0
13Inside Box0
7Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
504Total Passes403
418Accurate Passes318
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls16
2Yellow Cards4
4Offsides5

DFB Pokal: RB Leipzig 4–0 Vfl Bochum

RB Leipzig beat Vfl Bochum 4-0 in DFB Pokal on February 3, 2021.

Goals: A. Haidara (10'), M. Sabitzer (45+1' pen), Y. Poulsen (66', 75').

RB Leipzig controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 2.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.