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Vfl Bochum vs RB Leipzig — Bundesliga 2026

Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
C. Nkunku 82'
2/27/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 24Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Vfl Bochum38%
×Draw24%
RB Leipzig38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfl Bochum
1.50
RB Leipzig
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vfl Bochum
1.51
RB Leipzig
1.50

allows per match

Vfl Bochum
1.49
RB Leipzig
1.50

finishing

Vfl Bochum+0.07on par
RB Leipzig-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

RB Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw
62%
Vfl Bochum or RB Leipzig
76%
Draw or RB Leipzig
62%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
18%
RB Leipzig wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
78%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
44%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
19%
RB Leipzig 1+ goals
78%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
44%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
50%
RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 1.51 + RB Leipzig defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

RB Leipzig attack 1.50 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more
38%
level
24%
RB Leipzig scores more
38%

Vfl Bochum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
AngeliñoRB LeipzigRB Leipzig · M
7.7

Match Events

58'
C. Nkunku← D. Szoboszlai
58'
André Silva← Y. Poulsen
59'
Dani Olmo← T. Adams
70'
Mohamed Simakan
71'
J. Locadia← S. Polter
71'
G. Holtmann← T. Asano
72'
C. Antwi-Adjei← M. Pantović
72'
B. Henrichs← N. Mukiele
81'
K. Laimer← E. Forsberg
82'
C. Nkunku↳ B. Henrichs
86'
D. Blum← E. Löwen
87'
Cristian Gamboa

Possession

51%Vfl

Shots

14Vfl

Pass accuracy

51%Vfl

Statistics

VflRB
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots6
5Corners0
15Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots6
1On Target1
8Off Target4
5Blocked1
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box0
Passing
51%Possession49%
416Total Passes411
311Accurate Passes299
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Vfl Bochum vs RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig beat Vfl Bochum 1-0 in Bundesliga on February 27, 2022.

Goals: C. Nkunku (82').

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.