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RB Leipzig vs Vfl Bochum — Bundesliga 2026

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
C. Nkunku 78', 73'
André Silva 69'
10/2/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 7Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

RB Leipzig53%
×Draw22%
Vfl Bochum25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
1.90
Vfl Bochum
1.24

RB Leipzig creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
2.13
Vfl Bochum
1.12

allows per match

RB Leipzig
1.35
Vfl Bochum
1.67

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.34scores more
Vfl Bochum-0.52scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
75%
RB Leipzig or Vfl Bochum
78%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
47%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
30%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
85%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
56%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
29%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
71%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
35%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
68%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 2.13 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vfl Bochum attack 1.12 + RB Leipzig defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
53%
level
22%
Vfl Bochum scores more
25%

RB Leipzig at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
C. NkunkuRB LeipzigRB Leipzig · F
8.6

Match Events

5'
Emil ForsbergPenalty confirmed
58'
Angeliño
61'
N. Mukiele← Angeliño
69'
André Silva← Y. Poulsen
69'
D. Szoboszlai← E. Forsberg
69'
André Silva↳ D. Szoboszlai
73'
S. Polter← G. Holtmann
73'
C. Nkunku↳ André Silva
77'
E. Löwen← E. Rexhbeçaj
78'
M. Pantović← C. Antwi-Adjei
78'
D. Blum← T. Asano
78'
C. Nkunku↳ J. Gvardiol
79'
Ilaix Moriba← K. Kampl
79'
K. Laimer← M. Simakan
80'
Robert Tesche
82'
P. Osterhage← R. Tesche

Possession

60%RB

Shots

16RB

Pass accuracy

53%RB

Statistics

RBVfl
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots9
2Corners3
10Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots9
9On Target2
4Off Target5
3Blocked2
14Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
522Total Passes345
416Accurate Passes243
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides6

Match Recap: RB Leipzig vs Vfl Bochum

RB Leipzig beat Vfl Bochum 3-0 in Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: André Silva (69'), C. Nkunku (73', 78').

RB Leipzig controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.