Venezuela 2–1 Ecuador: Result & Stats | League #34

Venezuela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ecuador

E. Bello 64'

D. Machís 45+1'

E. Valencia 37' (pen)

10/10/2021

League #34 · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Venezuela35%

×Draw28%

Ecuador37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchEcuador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.18

Venezuela

1.15

Ecuador

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

0.80

1.56

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Venezuela

1.50

Ecuador

0.80

allows per match

Venezuela

1.56

Ecuador

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par

Ecuador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Ecuador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw

63%

Venezuela or Ecuador

72%

Draw or Ecuador

65%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+

14%

Ecuador wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals

68%

Venezuela 2+ goals

32%

Venezuela 3+ goals

11%

Ecuador 1+ goals

69%

Ecuador 2+ goals

33%

Ecuador 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)

49%

Ecuador (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Ecuador away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.50 + Ecuador defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ecuador attack 0.80 + Venezuela defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Venezuela scores more

35%

level

28%

Ecuador scores more

37%

Ecuador at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ecuador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

E. Bello

Venezuela · M

8.2

Match Events

34'

Gonzalo PlataPenalty cancelled

37'

E. ValenciaPenalty

45+4'

45+1'

62'

64'

65'

M. Estrada← Á. Preciado

65'

J. Rojas← E. Valencia

79'

J. Moreno← T. Rincón

79'

F. Aristeguieta← E. Ramírez

83'

B. Angulo← G. Plata

83'

A. Franco← R. Arboleda

85'

Félix Torres

87'

Júnior Moreno

88'

C. Cásseres← E. Bello

88'

J. Chancellor← A. Peñaranda

89'

E. Preciado← C. Gruezo

90+5'

José Martínez

90+4'

Fernando Aristeguieta

90+3'

J. Hurtado← D. Machís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VenezuelaEcuador

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots11

6Corners7

18Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target3

4Off Target5

6Blocked3

5Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

270Total Passes380

212Accurate Passes309

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

League #34: Venezuela 2–1 Ecuador

Venezuela beat Ecuador 2-1 in League #34 on October 10, 2021.

Goals: E. Valencia (37' pen), D. Machís (45+1'), E. Bello (64').

Ecuador controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.

Venezuela vs Ecuador — League #34 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #34: Venezuela 2–1 Ecuador