Ecuador 1–2 Venezuela: Result & Stats

Ecuador

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Venezuela

J. Sarmiento 40'

E. Bello 74'

J. Cádiz 64'

6/22/2024

Copa America · Group Stage - 1Levi's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ecuador34%

×Draw25%

Venezuela41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EcuadorExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.45

Ecuador

1.30

Venezuela

1.45

Venezuela creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

1.29

1.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ecuador

1.60

Venezuela

1.29

allows per match

Ecuador

1.60

Venezuela

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ecuador+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ecuador or draw

59%

Ecuador or Venezuela

75%

Draw or Venezuela

66%

Winning margin

Ecuador wins by 2+

15%

Venezuela wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ecuador 1+ goals

73%

Ecuador 2+ goals

37%

Ecuador 3+ goals

14%

Venezuela 1+ goals

77%

Venezuela 2+ goals

42%

Venezuela 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ecuador (draw refunded)

45%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador attack 1.60 + Venezuela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Venezuela attack 1.29 + Ecuador defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ecuador scores more

34%

level

25%

Venezuela scores more

41%

Venezuela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Caicedo

Ecuador · M

7.5

Match Events

21'

Enner ValenciaCard upgrade

22'

Enner Valencia

29'

Jeremy Sarmiento

31'

Darwin Machís

35'

K. Rodríguez← J. Yeboah

40'

J. Sarmiento

45+1'

Kendry Páez

45+2'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

46'

E. Bello← C. Cásseres

46'

J. Cádiz← D. Machís

63'

C. Gruezo← J. Sarmiento

64'

J. Cádiz↳ S. Rondón

74'

E. Bello

79'

J. Caicedo← A. Franco

79'

A. Minda← K. Páez

84'

E. Ramírez← S. Rondón

84'

J. Savarino← Y. Soteldo

90+2'

T. Rincón← Y. Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EcuadorVenezuela

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots14

0.86Expected Goals (xG)1.69

3Corners5

20Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

252Total Passes487

178Accurate Passes420

71%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.43Goals Prevented-0.43

Discipline

20Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Copa America: Ecuador 1–2 Venezuela

Venezuela beat Ecuador 2-1 in Copa America on June 22, 2024.

Goals: J. Sarmiento (40'), J. Cádiz (64'), E. Bello (74').

Venezuela controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

Ecuador vs Venezuela — Copa America 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Copa America: Ecuador 1–2 Venezuela