Ecuador 1–0 Venezuela: Result & Stats | League #34

Ecuador

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Venezuela

P. Hincapié 41'

11/11/2021

League #34 · Group Stage - 13Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ecuador71%

×Draw20%

Venezuela9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EcuadorExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.48

Ecuador

1.89

Venezuela

0.48

Ecuador creates 294% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.60

creates per match

0.56

0.40

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Ecuador

1.60

Venezuela

0.56

allows per match

Ecuador

0.40

Venezuela

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ecuador+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ecuador or draw

91%

Ecuador or Venezuela

80%

Draw or Venezuela

29%

Winning margin

Ecuador wins by 2+

44%

Venezuela wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ecuador 1+ goals

85%

Ecuador 2+ goals

56%

Ecuador 3+ goals

29%

Venezuela 1+ goals

38%

Venezuela 2+ goals

8%

Venezuela 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ecuador (draw refunded)

89%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador attack 1.60 + Venezuela defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Venezuela attack 0.56 + Ecuador defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ecuador scores more

71%

level

20%

Venezuela scores more

9%

Ecuador at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ecuador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Hincapié

Ecuador · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

Eric Ramírez

22'

Gonzalo Plata

25'

José Martínez

41'

P. Hincapié↳ G. Plata

45+2'

Adrian Martinez

46'

J. Hurtado← E. Ramírez

64'

J. Corozo← A. Preciado

64'

J. Caicedo← D. Reasco

65'

J. Moreno← José Martínez

65'

J. Savarino← B. Hurtado

76'

A. Franco← J. Sarmiento

81'

J. Vargas← R. Rosales

86'

R. Arboleda← C. Cruz

86'

J. Rojas← G. Plata

88'

L. González← D. Machís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EcuadorVenezuela

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots8

2Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target0

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

4Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

434Total Passes339

383Accurate Passes281

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1