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Ecuador vs Venezuela — League #34 2026

Ecuador
Ecuador
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Venezuela
Venezuela
E. Valencia 46', 39'
J. Cadiz 90'
3/21/2025League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 13Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ecuador71%
×Draw20%
Venezuela9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ecuador
1.89
Venezuela
0.48

Ecuador creates 294% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ecuador
1.60
Venezuela
0.56

allows per match

Ecuador
0.40
Venezuela
2.17

finishing

Ecuador+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ecuador or draw
91%
Ecuador or Venezuela
80%
Draw or Venezuela
29%

Winning margin

Ecuador wins by 2+
44%
Venezuela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ecuador 1+ goals
85%
Ecuador 2+ goals
56%
Ecuador 3+ goals
29%
Venezuela 1+ goals
38%
Venezuela 2+ goals
8%
Venezuela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ecuador (draw refunded)
89%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador attack 1.60 + Venezuela defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Venezuela attack 0.56 + Ecuador defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ecuador scores more
71%
level
20%
Venezuela scores more
9%

Ecuador at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ecuador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
P. ViteEcuadorEcuador · M
7.9

Match Events

39'
E. Valencia↳ P. Vite
46'
T. Rincon← J. Bueno
46'
Y. Soteldo← G. Mendoza
46'
E. Valencia
61'
F. Vargas← T. Segovia
61'
J. Cadiz← S. Rondon
62'
J. Yeboah← J. Ordonez
62'
J. Mercado← J. Corozo
63'
Freddy Vargas
65'
John Mercado
77'
Jan Hurtado←
78'
Josua Mejías
84'
K. Rodriguez← E. Valencia
90+3'
D. Castillo← G. Plata
90+3'
J. Mendez← P. Vite
90'
J. Cadiz↳ C. Makoun

Possession

71%Ecuador

Shots

16Ecuador

Pass accuracy

56%Ecuador

Statistics

EcuadorVenezuela
Overview
71%Possession29%
16Total Shots10
5Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots10
6On Target6
6Off Target3
4Blocked1
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
570Total Passes232
512Accurate Passes167
90%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Ecuador vs Venezuela

Ecuador beat Venezuela 2-1 in League #34 on March 21, 2025.

Goals: E. Valencia (39', 46'), J. Cadiz (90').

Ecuador controlled possession (71%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.