Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Talleres Cordoba

Velez Sarsfield

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Talleres Cordoba

M. Caceres 48'

11/1/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield48%

×Draw28%

Talleres Cordoba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Velez Sarsfield

1.35

Talleres Cordoba

0.86

Velez Sarsfield creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

0.79

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

1.44

Talleres Cordoba

0.94

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

0.79

Talleres Cordoba

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

76%

Velez Sarsfield or Talleres Cordoba

72%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

52%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

23%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

74%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

39%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

15%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

58%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

21%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

67%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

48%

level

28%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

24%

Velez Sarsfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Caceres

Talleres Cordoba · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Camilo Portilla

46'

D. Godoy← B. Romero

48'

M. Caceres↳ J. Portilla

54'

T. Silvero← L. Magallan

54'

D. Valdes← E. Gomez

58'

Dilan Godoy

61'

F. Girotti← L. Angulo

68'

M. Navarro← J. Portilla

75'

M. Gomez← Rick

75'

J. Mosqueira← M. Caceres

80'

F. Monzon← M. Lanzini

81'

R. Aliendro← C. Baeza

85'

Gabriel Báez

90+2'

Miguel Navarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VelezTalleres

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots15

1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.17

6Corners1

7Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target4

6Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box11

Passing

61%Possession39%

472Total Passes310

371Accurate Passes219

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.55Goals Prevented0.55

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0