Talleres Cordoba 1–0 Velez Sarsfield

Talleres Cordoba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

E. Mammana 13' (OG)

3/30/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Talleres Cordoba69%

×Draw19%

Velez Sarsfield12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.75

Talleres Cordoba

2.13

Velez Sarsfield

0.75

Talleres Cordoba creates 184% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

0.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

2.50

Velez Sarsfield

0.75

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.75

Velez Sarsfield

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

88%

Talleres Cordoba or Velez Sarsfield

81%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

31%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

44%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

88%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

63%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

35%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

53%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

17%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

85%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 2.50 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.75 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

69%

level

19%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

12%

Talleres Cordoba at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Marchiori

Velez Sarsfield · G

8.3

Match Events

2'

E. Mammana

11'

M. Portillo

13'

E. MammanaOwn goal

15'

Braian Romero

40'

M. Navarro

46'

A. Martínez← R. Botta

46'

M. Pellegrini← T. Fernández

67'

M. Galarza← M. Portillo

74'

Lenny Lobato← C. Aquino

74'

A. Sarco← F. Pizzini

80'

N. Bustos← F. Girotti

80'

J. Portillo← J. Portilla

82'

Á. Montoro← M. Pellegrini

82'

T. Vecino← B. Romero

89'

A. Vigo← G. Benavídez

90+5'

N. Bustos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresVelez

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots13

6Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots13

8On Target1

5Off Target6

3Blocked6

8Inside Box11

8Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

342Total Passes438

243Accurate Passes330

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2