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Velez Sarsfield vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
T. Fernández 63'
C. Aquino 53'
B. Romero 36'
7/21/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Velez Sarsfield48%
×Draw28%
Talleres Cordoba24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.36
Talleres Cordoba
0.88

Velez Sarsfield creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.46
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.81
Talleres Cordoba
1.26

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.01on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
76%
Velez Sarsfield or Talleres Cordoba
72%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
52%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
23%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
74%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
39%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
16%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
59%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
22%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
66%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.46 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
48%
level
28%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
24%

Velez Sarsfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
C. AquinoVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · M
8.2

Match Events

32'
Agustín Bouzat
34'
Marcos Portillo
36'
B. Romero↳ T. Fernández
53'
C. Aquino↳ F. Pizzini
54'
M. Galarza← M. Portillo
54'
J. Portilla← U. Ortegoza
63'
T. Fernández↳ C. Aquino
74'
B. Riveros← M. Navarro
74'
S. Palacios← F. Girotti
75'
M. Santos← C. Aquino
75'
M. Pellegrini← B. Romero
77'
Rubén Botta
82'
G. Albarracín← R. Botta
83'
Á. Montoro← T. Fernández
83'
A. Lagos← T. Guidara
90+3'
Leonel Roldán

Possession

39%Velez

Shots

11Velez

Pass accuracy

47%Velez

Statistics

VelezTalleres
Overview
39%Possession61%
11Total Shots15
1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.87
2Corners8
15Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots15
4On Target4
4Off Target7
3Blocked4
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box8
Passing
39%Possession61%
270Total Passes426
193Accurate Passes338
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-1.17Goals Prevented-1.17
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Velez Sarsfield 3–0 Talleres Cordoba

Velez Sarsfield beat Talleres Cordoba 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 21, 2024.

Goals: B. Romero (36'), C. Aquino (53'), T. Fernández (63').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.