Talleres Cordoba 0–1 Velez Sarsfield

Talleres Cordoba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

M. Carrizo 48'

4/18/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Talleres Cordoba39%

×Draw33%

Velez Sarsfield27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.76

Talleres Cordoba

0.97

Velez Sarsfield

0.76

Talleres Cordoba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

0.98

creates per match

0.81

0.71

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.98

Velez Sarsfield

0.81

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.71

Velez Sarsfield

0.96

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.10scores less

Velez Sarsfield-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

73%

Talleres Cordoba or Velez Sarsfield

67%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

61%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

15%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

62%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

25%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

53%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

18%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

59%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.81 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

39%

level

33%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

27%

Talleres Cordoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

E. Reynoso

Talleres Cordoba · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

Braian RomeroGoal cancelled

28'

Christian Ordoñez

35'

Agustín Lagos

48'

M. Carrizo↳ A. Bouzat

53'

Santiago Fernandez

59'

N. Bustos← M. Galarza

63'

M. Pellegrini← F. Pizzini

73'

S. Palacios← J. Mosqueira

73'

U. Ortegoza← V. Depietri

74'

K. A. Vazquez← C. Baeza

74'

T. Silvero← A. Lagos

74'

A. Montoro← M. Carrizo

81'

C. Tarragona← J. Portilla

81'

B. Riveros← M. Navarro

84'

A. Quiros← E. Gomez

88'

Ulises Ortegoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresVelez

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots5

5Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots5

4On Target2

9Off Target2

5Blocked1

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

473Total Passes261

390Accurate Passes159

82%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3