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Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
B. Romero 80'
3/7/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Velez Sarsfield50%
×Draw29%
San Martin S.J.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.29
San Martin S.J.
0.74

Velez Sarsfield creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.46
San Martin S.J.
0.67

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.81
San Martin S.J.
1.12

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.01on par
San Martin S.J.-0.17scores less

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
79%
Velez Sarsfield or San Martin S.J.
71%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
50%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
23%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
72%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
37%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
14%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
52%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
17%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
70%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.46 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Martin S.J. attack 0.67 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
50%
level
29%
San Martin S.J. scores more
21%

Velez Sarsfield at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. MarchioriVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · G
7.7

Match Events

20'
Braian RomeroGoal cancelled
21'
Álvaro Montoro
36'
Nicolas Pelaitay
46'
N. Watson← S. Jaurena
56'
Braian Romero
62'
M. Pellegrini← A. Montoro
62'
F. Pizzini← B. Bosch
63'
A. Portillo← T. Fernandez
63'
J. Cavallaro← S. Gonzalez
67'
Marco Iacobellis
70'
Rodrigo Caseres
74'
Leonel Roldán
75'
I. Andrada← J. Gordon
75'
M. Porcel← L. Roldan
77'
F. Gonzalez← F. Anselmo
80'
T. Silvero← D. Fernandez
80'
B. Romero↳ I. Andrada
83'
M. Casa← N. Pelaitay

Possession

62%Velez

Shots

14Velez

Pass accuracy

56%Velez

Statistics

VelezSan
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots11
5Corners6
9Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots11
5On Target3
4Off Target6
5Blocked2
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
398Total Passes248
314Accurate Passes155
79%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin S.J.

Velez Sarsfield beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 7, 2025.

Goals: B. Romero (80').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.