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San Martin S.J. vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
N. Solís 88'
M. Gelabert 63'
F. Mattia 13'
N. Domínguez 27'
10/6/2018Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 8Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.35%
×Draw33%
Velez Sarsfield32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
0.93
Velez Sarsfield
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Velez Sarsfield
0.81

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Velez Sarsfield
0.96

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Velez Sarsfield-0.14scores less

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Velez Sarsfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
68%
San Martin S.J. or Velez Sarsfield
67%
Draw or Velez Sarsfield
65%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
13%
Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
61%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
24%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
7%
Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
59%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
22%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
52%
Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.81 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
35%
level
33%
Velez Sarsfield scores more
32%

San Martin S.J. at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
N. SolísSan Martin S.J.San Martin S.J. · M
8.1

Match Events

13'
F. Mattia↳ A. Pucheta
27'
N. Domínguez↳ L. Robertone
46'
P. Galdames← G. Giménez
49'
Jonathan Goitia
51'
Braian Cufré
63'
M. Gelabert↳ N. Solís
65'
Joaquin Laso
68'
F. Cristaldo← G. Villarruel
70'
L. Amarilla← A. Bouzat
70'
T. Almada← L. Robertone
71'
Claudio Mosca
80'
N. Pelaitay← M. Gelabert
83'
P. Magnín← M. Bravo
87'
Matías Vargas
88'
N. Solís↳ P. Magnín
90'
Federico Milo

Possession

36%San

Shots

11San

Pass accuracy

45%San

Statistics

SanVelez
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots8
4Corners7
12Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target2
1Off Target6
5Blocked0
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
36%Possession64%
232Total Passes396
151Accurate Passes308
65%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 3–1 Velez Sarsfield

San Martin S.J. beat Velez Sarsfield 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 6, 2018.

Goals: F. Mattia (13'), N. Domínguez (27'), M. Gelabert (63'), N. Solís (88').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (64%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.