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San Martin S.J. vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
I. Maestro 59'
D. Godoy 46'
M. Lanzini 10'
9/19/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.35%
×Draw33%
Velez Sarsfield32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
0.93
Velez Sarsfield
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Velez Sarsfield
0.81

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Velez Sarsfield
0.96

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Velez Sarsfield-0.14scores less

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Velez Sarsfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
68%
San Martin S.J. or Velez Sarsfield
67%
Draw or Velez Sarsfield
65%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
13%
Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
61%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
24%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
7%
Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
59%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
22%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
52%
Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.81 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
35%
level
33%
Velez Sarsfield scores more
32%

San Martin S.J. at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. LanziniVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · M
8.0

Match Events

8'
Tomás Cavanagh
10'
M. Lanzini↳ I. Andrada
44'
Lucas Diarte
45+1'
Diego González
45'
T. Silvero← T. Cavanagh
46'
D. Godoy↳ M. Lanzini
53'
F. Toloza← D. Gonzalez
54'
Ayrton Portillo
59'
I. Maestro↳ M. Iacobellis
61'
Rodrigo Caseres
69'
A. Molina← A. Portillo
69'
J. Menendez← M. Iacobellis
70'
D. Valdes← D. Godoy
70'
R. Aliendro← M. Lanzini
70'
F. Pizzini← I. Machuca
77'
L. Roldan← I. Andrada
78'
Santiago Salle
80'
T. Fernandez← S. Salle
81'
J. Cavallaro← S. Gonzalez
90+8'
Aarón Quirós
90+8'
Aarón QuirósCard upgrade

Possession

55%San

Shots

17San

Pass accuracy

51%San

Statistics

SanVelez
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots9
0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.85
11Corners4
23Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots9
5On Target5
7Off Target2
5Blocked2
13Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
309Total Passes274
220Accurate Passes189
71%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.39Goals Prevented0.39
Discipline
23Fouls9
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs Velez Sarsfield

Velez Sarsfield beat San Martin S.J. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Lanzini (10'), D. Godoy (46'), I. Maestro (59').

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.