San Martin S.J. 0–2 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

San Martin S.J.

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Velez Sarsfield

A. Bouzat 18'

L. Robertone 5'

5/4/2018

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 26Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.35%

×Draw33%

Velez Sarsfield32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.88

San Martin S.J.

0.93

Velez Sarsfield

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

0.89

creates per match

0.81

0.94

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

0.89

Velez Sarsfield

0.81

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.94

Velez Sarsfield

0.96

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par

Velez Sarsfield-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

68%

San Martin S.J. or Velez Sarsfield

67%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

65%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

13%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

61%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

24%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

7%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

59%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

22%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

52%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.81 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

35%

level

33%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

32%

San Martin S.J. at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Robertone

Velez Sarsfield · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

L. Robertone↳ M. Vargas

18'

29'

34'

43'

46'

F. Barcelo← E. Agüero

50'

Pablo Aguilar

60'

C. Parano← G. Carabajal

63'

M. Zárate← R. Salinas

64'

F. Cubero← L. Robertone

74'

J. Goitía← G. Villarruel

87'

N. Delgadillo← M. Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanVelez

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots16

0Corners5

16Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target7

6Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box12

3Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

417Total Passes489

319Accurate Passes399

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1