Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Velez Sarsfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rosario Central

M. Lanzini 51'

I. Malcorra 90' (pen)

A. Veliz 17'

10/12/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield46%

×Draw29%

Rosario Central25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.86

Velez Sarsfield

1.26

Rosario Central

0.86

Velez Sarsfield creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

0.93

0.79

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

1.44

Rosario Central

0.93

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

0.79

Rosario Central

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Rosario Central-0.09on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

75%

Velez Sarsfield or Rosario Central

71%

Draw or Rosario Central

54%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

21%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

72%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

36%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

13%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

58%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

21%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

64%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rosario Central attack 0.93 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

46%

level

29%

Rosario Central scores more

25%

Velez Sarsfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Sandez

Rosario Central · D

8.0

Match Events

17'

23'

23'

51'

65'

67'

68'

69'

71'

79'

F. Oviedo← A. Di Maria

83'

83'

87'

88'

90+6'

90+12'

90+11'

Rodrigo AliendroCard upgrade

90+4'

Emanuel CoronelPenalty confirmed

90+2'

A. Werner← J. Broun

90+2'

A. Modica← A. Veliz

90'

I. MalcorraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VelezRosario

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots11

0.69Expected Goals (xG)1.53

7Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target3

3Off Target7

6Blocked1

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

460Total Passes329

392Accurate Passes246

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat Velez Sarsfield 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Veliz (17'), M. Lanzini (51'), I. Malcorra (90' pen).

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.

Velez Sarsfield vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Rosario Central