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Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
K. Ortíz 85'
A. Sández 76'
I. Malcorra 28' (pen)
10/1/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rosario Central39%
×Draw33%
Velez Sarsfield27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
0.98
Velez Sarsfield
0.76

Rosario Central creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Velez Sarsfield
0.90

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Velez Sarsfield
0.92

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Velez Sarsfield-0.21scores less

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Velez Sarsfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
73%
Rosario Central or Velez Sarsfield
67%
Draw or Velez Sarsfield
61%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
15%
Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
62%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
26%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
8%
Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
53%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
18%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
59%
Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.90 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rosario Central scores more
39%
level
33%
Velez Sarsfield scores more
27%

Rosario Central at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. MalcorraRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.3

Match Events

25'
Damián Fernández
28'
I. MalcorraPenalty
32'
E. Mammana← M. Pellegrini
58'
Maximiliano Lovera
58'
M. Ruben← E. Copetti
59'
Kevin Ortíz
67'
J. Gómez← L. Giaccone
67'
G. Duarte← M. Lovera
69'
C. Ordoñez← A. Bouzat
69'
T. Fernández← F. Pizzini
69'
R. Piñeiro← C. Aquino
76'
A. Sández↳ I. Malcorra
78'
Facundo Mallo
78'
Braian Romero
84'
F. Montoro← B. Romero
85'
K. Ortíz↳ G. Duarte
88'
D. Martínez← E. Coronel
88'
S. Beltrán← K. Ortíz

Possession

41%Rosario

Shots

10Rosario

Pass accuracy

48%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioVelez
Overview
41%Possession59%
10Total Shots9
1.10Expected Goals (xG)0.34
9Corners5
13Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target2
4Off Target2
2Blocked5
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
328Total Passes480
233Accurate Passes374
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
-0.74Goals Prevented-0.74
Discipline
13Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield

Rosario Central beat Velez Sarsfield 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 1, 2024.

Goals: I. Malcorra (28' pen), A. Sández (76'), K. Ortíz (85').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.