Rosario Central 2–1 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

Rosario Central

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Velez Sarsfield

E. Gimenez 90'

A. Sandez 58'

B. Romero 10'

4/5/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rosario Central39%

×Draw33%

Velez Sarsfield27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.76

Rosario Central

0.98

Velez Sarsfield

0.76

Rosario Central creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

0.90

0.62

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

Velez Sarsfield

0.90

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

Velez Sarsfield

0.92

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

Velez Sarsfield-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

73%

Rosario Central or Velez Sarsfield

67%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

61%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

15%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

62%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

26%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

8%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

53%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

18%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

59%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.90 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rosario Central scores more

39%

level

33%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

27%

Rosario Central at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Romero

Velez Sarsfield · F

7.7

Match Events

10'

B. Romero

13'

Braian RomeroGoal confirmed

19'

24'

39'

45+1'

46'

48'

53'

53'

56'

58'

60'

61'

T. O'Connor← F. Ibarra

61'

G. Duarte← L. Giaccone

63'

Tomás O'Connor

63'

Valentín Gómez

70'

S. Segovia← M. Lovera

76'

E. Mammana← A. Lagos

77'

M. Carrizo← B. Romero

87'

E. Gimenez← E. Coronel

87'

G. Cantizano← S. Lopez

90+5'

Federico Navarro

90+3'

Enzo Giménez

90'

Claudio Baeza

90'

E. Gimenez↳ S. Segovia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioVelez

Overview

65%Possession35%

8Total Shots4

10Corners3

6Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots4

4On Target3

2Off Target1

2Blocked0

3Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

406Total Passes221

329Accurate Passes138

81%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls16

5Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Rosario Central 2–1 Velez Sarsfield

Rosario Central beat Velez Sarsfield 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 5, 2025.

Goals: B. Romero (10'), A. Sandez (58'), E. Gimenez (90').

Rosario Central controlled possession (65%) and registered 8 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.

Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Rosario Central 2–1 Velez Sarsfield