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Velez Sarsfield vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
D. Fernández 83'
L. Orellano 6'
6/20/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield46%
×Draw29%
Rosario Central25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.29
Rosario Central
0.88

Velez Sarsfield creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.44
Rosario Central
0.96

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.79
Rosario Central
1.14

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
Rosario Central-0.06on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
75%
Velez Sarsfield or Rosario Central
71%
Draw or Rosario Central
54%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
21%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
72%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
37%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
14%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
59%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
22%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
64%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Rosario Central defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rosario Central attack 0.96 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
46%
level
29%
Rosario Central scores more
25%

Velez Sarsfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
F. OrtegaVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · D
8.3

Match Events

6'
L. Orellano
38'
F. Buonanotte← W. Montoya
41'
Leonardo JaraPenalty cancelled
48'
Damián Fernández
64'
Lucas Gamba
70'
Luciano FerreyraPenalty cancelled
75'
Maximo Perrone
76'
Francisco Ortega
81'
J. Florentín← L. Pratto
81'
S. Castro← A. Osorio
83'
D. Fernández↳ V. Gómez
85'
J. Fernández← L. Janson
85'
A. Mulet← M. Perrone
85'
M. Covea← L. Ferreyra
86'
F. Frías← C. Yacob
87'
J. Soñora← L. Orellano
87'
M. Tanlongo← M. Benítez
87'
F. Torrent← D. Martínez
90+6'
Fernando Torrent

Possession

52%Velez

Shots

12Velez

Pass accuracy

51%Velez

Statistics

VelezRosario
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots10
7Corners7
10Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target5
5Off Target2
3Blocked3
10Inside Box7
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
374Total Passes350
288Accurate Passes257
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs Rosario Central

Velez Sarsfield beat Rosario Central 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 20, 2022.

Goals: L. Orellano (6'), D. Fernández (83').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.