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Veles vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
14:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
7/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Avangard Stadium
Big match
48%
Veles
model favours
48%32%19%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
75%
under 2.5 goals
30%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veles48%
×Draw32%
Chelyabinsk19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.12
Chelyabinsk
0.59

Veles creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Veles
1.00
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

Veles
0.43
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Veles or draw
81%
Veles or Chelyabinsk
68%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
52%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
21%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
67%
Veles 2+ goals
31%
Veles 3+ goals
10%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
45%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
12%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
71%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.00 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Veles defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Veles scores more
48%
level
32%
Chelyabinsk scores more
19%

Veles at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Chelyabinsk

July 19, 2026: Veles take on Chelyabinsk in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Chelyabinsk at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.