Veles 1–3 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Chelyabinsk

O. Smirnov 15'

I. Gruznov 73'

V. Khozin 33'

D. Pushkarev 20'

9/15/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 9Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veles37%

×Draw28%

Chelyabinsk36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.17

Veles

1.19

Chelyabinsk

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

1.44

0.89

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Veles

1.49

Chelyabinsk

1.44

allows per match

Veles

0.89

Chelyabinsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Veles or draw

64%

Veles or Chelyabinsk

72%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

63%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

15%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

70%

Veles 2+ goals

33%

Veles 3+ goals

12%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

69%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

33%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

51%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Veles scores more

37%

level

28%

Chelyabinsk scores more

36%

Veles at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

17'

20'

33'

45'

46'

R. Vazitdinov← N. Goldobin

50'

A. Nosov

58'

I. Umarov← M. Nasibov

58'

I. Kotelnikov← V. Kobakhidze

70'

I. Gruznov← V. Gorbachik

70'

G. Levin← A. Nosov

71'

A. Shubin

73'

I. Gruznov

74'

E. Pesikov← A. Arustamyan

74'

I. Karpuk← A. Shubin

78'

A. Musayev← O. Smirnov

79'

R. Kosyanchuk← K. Kertanov

90+2'

D. Pokotylo← D. Pushkarev

Veles

Chelyabinsk

1

Zadiraka

2

⚽

44

63

66

20

18

▼

Kertanov

11

▼

Nosov

97

▼

Goldobin

33

▼

Gorbachik

15

⚽

▼

85

2

4

3

31

81

▼

Kobakhidz

77

⚽

▼

Smirnov

97

▼

Shubin

18

Dzhamuev

70

▼

Arustamya

25

▼

Nasibov

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

58'▲I. Umarov←▼M. Nasibov

58'▲I. Kotelnikov←▼V. Kobakhidze

74'▲E. Pesikov←▼A. Arustamyan

74'▲I. Karpuk←▼A. Shubin

78'▲A. Musayev←▼O. Smirnov

Veles substitutes

7Umarov14Kotelnikov17Pesikov90Karpuk20Musayev1Shitov5Koloskov8Sedov10Ivakin11Dibirov23Gioev55Konyukhov

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

46'▲R. Vazitdinov←▼N. Goldobin

70'▲I. Gruznov←▼V. Gorbachik

70'▲G. Levin←▼A. Nosov

79'▲R. Kosyanchuk←▼K. Kertanov

90+2'▲D. Pokotylo←▼D. Pushkarev

Chelyabinsk substitutes

7Vazitdinov36Gruznov70Levin37Kosyanchuk22Pokotylo23Rybikov74Stanislavchuk90Lyakh