Chelyabinsk 3–1 Veles: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Veles

V. Gorbachik 78'

D. Samoylov 70'

T. Komissarov 24'

A. Arustamyan 31'

4/23/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 9Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chelyabinsk43%

×Draw24%

Veles33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.45

Chelyabinsk

1.67

Veles

1.45

Chelyabinsk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

1.60

1.29

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.14

Veles

1.60

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.29

Veles

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

67%

Chelyabinsk or Veles

76%

Draw or Veles

57%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

22%

Veles wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

81%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

50%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

23%

Veles 1+ goals

77%

Veles 2+ goals

42%

Veles 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

56%

Veles (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Veles away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.14 + Veles defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Veles attack 1.60 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

43%

level

24%

Veles scores more

33%

Chelyabinsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

24'

31'

34'

41'

45+3'

46'

A. Nosov← D. Pushkarev

55'

T. Komissarov

56'

D. Pokotylo← V. Ulyanovskiy

65'

66'

66'

70'

74'

M. Nasibov← E. Pesikov

74'

M. Sidelnikov← Y. Ivakin

76'

V. Gorbachik← T. Komissarov

76'

G. Levin← D. Pokotylo

78'

V. Gorbachik

80'

A. Shubin

83'

I. Dibirov← A. Shubin

83'

V. Kobakhidze← R. Chobanov

83'

I. Karpuk← O. Smirnov

Chelyabinsk

Veles

1

95

3

5

10

▼

Ivakin

55

Konyukhov

17

▼

Pesikov

77

▼

Smirnov

97

▼

Shubin

6

▼

Chobanov

70

⚽

1

66

55

5

▼

Gatin

20

Pomerko

18

Kertanov

77

⚽

Samoylov

87

Bozhenov

19

⚽

▼

Komissaro

17

▼

Ulyanovsk

15

▼

Pushkarev

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

34'▲A. Sokolov←▼B. Gatin

46'▲A. Nosov←▼D. Pushkarev

56'▲D. Pokotylo←▼V. Ulyanovskiy

76'▲V. Gorbachik←▼T. Komissarov

76'▲G. Levin←▼D. Pokotylo

Chelyabinsk substitutes

8Sokolov11Nosov22Pokotylo33Gorbachik70Levin2Khozin10Gruznov13Tushin37Kosyanchuk47Glukhov50Sugrobov72Novikov

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

74'▲M. Nasibov←▼E. Pesikov

74'▲M. Sidelnikov←▼Y. Ivakin

83'▲I. Dibirov←▼A. Shubin

83'▲V. Kobakhidze←▼R. Chobanov

83'▲I. Karpuk←▼O. Smirnov

Veles substitutes

25Nasibov56Sidelnikov11Dibirov81Kobakhidze90Karpuk8Sedov14Kotelnikov15Sosranov80Rybalko85Zheymo