Veles 2–1 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chelyabinsk

I. Umarov 88'

E. Pesikov 56'

Y. Gudkov 82'

6/8/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 17Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veles40%

×Draw32%

Chelyabinsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.82

Veles

1.04

Chelyabinsk

0.82

Veles creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.71

creates per match

0.50

1.14

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Veles

0.71

Chelyabinsk

0.50

allows per match

Veles

1.14

Chelyabinsk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Veles or draw

72%

Veles or Chelyabinsk

68%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

60%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

16%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

65%

Veles 2+ goals

28%

Veles 3+ goals

9%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

56%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

20%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

59%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 0.71 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chelyabinsk attack 0.50 + Veles defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more

40%

level

32%

Chelyabinsk scores more

28%

Veles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

T. Komissarov

45'

D. Samoilov

46'

I. Gruznov← A. Sokolov

56'

E. Pesikov

62'

E. Pesikov← I. Umarov

62'

Y. Ivakin← V. Kobakhidze

63'

V. Gorbachik← V. Gorbachik

63'

A. Nosov← D. Pushkarev

69'

G. Levin← V. Uljanovskiy

70'

A. Pomerko

75'

K. Kertanov← R. Kosyanchuk

78'

A. Arustamyan← A. Arustamyan

78'

M. Sidelnikov← M. Sidelnikov

82'

Y. Gudkov

83'

Y. Gudkov

86'

I. Karpuk← I. Karpuk

88'

I. Umarov

90+1'

I. Karpuk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff