Chelyabinsk 1–3 Veles: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Veles

N. Goldobin 11'

O. Smirnov 59', 41'

I. Umarov 9'

11/10/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 17Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chelyabinsk42%

×Draw28%

Veles30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

Chelyabinsk

1.28

Veles

1.04

Chelyabinsk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

1.11

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.56

Veles

0.97

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.11

Veles

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

70%

Chelyabinsk or Veles

72%

Draw or Veles

58%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

19%

Veles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

72%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

37%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

14%

Veles 1+ goals

65%

Veles 2+ goals

28%

Veles 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

58%

Veles (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Veles away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.56 + Veles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Veles attack 0.97 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

42%

level

28%

Veles scores more

30%

Chelyabinsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

11'

20'

41'

44'

54'

54'

V. Gorbachik← D. Pushkarev

54'

R. Kosyanchuk← K. Kertanov

54'

G. Levin← N. Goldobin

59'

O. Smirnov

64'

M. Sedov← I. Kotelnikov

75'

A. Gioev← A. Arustamyan

86'

E. Pesikov← O. Smirnov

86'

G. Dzhamuev← I. Umarov

Chelyabinsk

Veles

1

2

95

5

81

55

14

▼

Kotelniko

77

⚽2

▼

Smirnov

97

Shubin

7

⚽

▼

Umarov

70

▼

1

2

44

66

47

▼

Furman

20

Pomerko

90

Lyakh

18

▼

Kertanov

97

⚽

▼

Goldobin

36

Gruznov

15

▼

Pushkarev

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

54'▲A. Nosov←▼K. Furman

54'▲V. Gorbachik←▼D. Pushkarev

54'▲R. Kosyanchuk←▼K. Kertanov

54'▲G. Levin←▼N. Goldobin

Chelyabinsk substitutes

11Nosov33Gorbachik37Kosyanchuk70Levin13Tushin22Pokotylo23Rybikov63Nikitenkov72Novikov74Stanislavchuk

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

64'▲M. Sedov←▼I. Kotelnikov

75'▲A. Gioev←▼A. Arustamyan

86'▲E. Pesikov←▼O. Smirnov

86'▲G. Dzhamuev←▼I. Umarov

Veles substitutes

8Sedov23Gioev17Pesikov18Dzhamuev11Dibirov31Matveev80Rybalko85Zheymo90Karpuk

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Veles

Veles beat Chelyabinsk 3-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 10, 2024.

Goals: I. Umarov (9'), N. Goldobin (11'), O. Smirnov (41', 59').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Chelyabinsk.

Chelyabinsk vs Veles — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Veles