Vasteras SK FK 1–1 IF Brommapojkarna

Vasteras SK FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

J. Ali 20'

N. Vasić 39'

5/26/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 11Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vasteras SK FK38%

×Draw26%

IF Brommapojkarna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.29

Vasteras SK FK

1.33

IF Brommapojkarna

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 27 away

1.25

creates per match

1.35

1.23

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.25

IF Brommapojkarna

1.35

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.23

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

64%

Vasteras SK FK or IF Brommapojkarna

74%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

62%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

17%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

74%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

38%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

15%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

72%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

37%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

51%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.23 · 8 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.25 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

38%

level

26%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

36%

Vasteras SK FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Sidklev

IF Brommapojkarna · G

7.7

Match Events

20'

J. Ali↳ A. Warneryd

39'

N. Vasić↳ F. Christensen

46'

R. Örqvist← L. Fritzson

50'

H. Offia← J. Ali

54'

Kaare Barslund

62'

Daleho Irandust← W. Odefalk

62'

A. Jakobsen← F. Christensen

69'

M. Ahlinvi← S. Johansson

69'

J. Johansson← A. Warneryd

78'

P. Pichkah← R. Örqvist

84'

J. Magnusson← M. Larsson

84'

Pedro Ribeiro← H. Magnusson

86'

L. Žuta← T. Waker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VasterasIF

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots11

7Corners8

9Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots11

8On Target5

1Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

453Total Passes455

366Accurate Passes376

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1