IF Brommapojkarna 2–1 Vasteras SK FK

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

A. Jensen 74'

N. Vasić 56'

Viktor Granath 77'

9/30/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 25Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna44%

×Draw24%

Vasteras SK FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.35

IF Brommapojkarna

1.64

Vasteras SK FK

1.35

IF Brommapojkarna creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.26

creates per match

1.20

1.50

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.26

Vasteras SK FK

1.20

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

Vasteras SK FK

2.02

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.12scores more

Vasteras SK FK-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

68%

IF Brommapojkarna or Vasteras SK FK

76%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

56%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

23%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

81%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

49%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

23%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

74%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

39%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

58%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.26 + Vasteras SK FK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.20 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

44%

level

24%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

32%

IF Brommapojkarna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Daleho Irandust

IF Brommapojkarna · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

Marcus Linday

56'

N. Vasić↳ A. Abrahamsson

63'

Camil Jebara

65'

Y. Sanyang← S. Johansson

65'

E. Bouzaiene← A. Warneryd

65'

Viktor Granath← C. Jebara

74'

A. Jensen

75'

W. Odefalk← Daleho Irandust

77'

Viktor Granath↳ E. Bouzaiene

78'

V. Wernersson← M. Larsson

84'

F. Christensen← A. Jakobsen

84'

Pedro Ribeiro← F. Smand

88'

Viktor Granath

90+1'

Alex Timossi Andersson

90'

A. Calisir← K. Barslund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFVasteras

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots14

1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.70

6Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots14

6On Target2

6Off Target5

7Blocked7

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

484Total Passes469

398Accurate Passes389

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0