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Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna — Superettan 2026

Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
G. Magnusson 32'
8/8/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Iver Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vasteras SK FK46%
×Draw24%
IF Brommapojkarna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasteras SK FK
1.69
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33

Vasteras SK FK creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 27 away

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.76
IF Brommapojkarna
1.52

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.15
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw
70%
Vasteras SK FK or IF Brommapojkarna
76%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
54%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
24%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
82%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
50%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
24%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
74%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
38%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
60%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.76 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.52 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more
46%
level
24%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
30%

Vasteras SK FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
G. Magnusson
56'
Simon Gefvert
58'
T. Söderström← O. Pettersson
58'
P. Hellquist← N. Vasic
67'
N. Maripuu← W. Odefalk
67'
M. Jelassi← T. Bergvall
71'
Monir Jelassi
72'
O. Edlund← M. Larsson
72'
D. Burubwa← M. Gamboš
80'
Theodore Rask
83'
V. Prodell← H. Magnusson
83'
M. Pawlik← A. Douglas
84'
R. Frej← M. Ćosić
89'
E. Skogh← D. Ask

Possession

57%Vasteras

Shots

15Vasteras

Statistics

VasterasIF
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots6
10Corners1
9Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots6
4On Target2
11Off Target3
Passing
57%Possession43%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Superettan: Vasteras SK FK 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna

IF Brommapojkarna beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 in Superettan on August 8, 2022.

Goals: G. Magnusson (32').

Vasteras SK FK controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Iver Arena in Västerås.