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Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio — Serie A 2025

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio
Gremio
Lucas Freitas 64'
Gustavo Martins 80'
7/19/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 15Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Vasco DA Gama63%
×Draw21%
Gremio16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.98
Gremio
0.86

Vasco DA Gama creates 130% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.68
Gremio
0.63

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.10
Gremio
2.29

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.35scores less
Gremio+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
84%
Vasco DA Gama or Gremio
79%
Draw or Gremio
37%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
39%
Gremio wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
86%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
59%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
31%
Gremio 1+ goals
58%
Gremio 2+ goals
21%
Gremio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
80%
Gremio (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 24 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.29 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.68 + Gremio defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gremio attack 0.63 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
63%
level
21%
Gremio scores more
16%

Vasco DA Gama at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Tiago VolpiGremioGremio · G
8.3

Match Events

40'
Hugo MouraGoal cancelled
43'
Edenilson
45+6'
Alex Santana
45+2'
Cristian Olivera
46'
M. Villasanti← Edenilson
54'
C. Pavon← C. Olivera
54'
F. Cristaldo← Alex Santana
61'
Paulo Henrique
64'
Lucas Freitas
68'
R. Freitas dos Santos← Alysson
75'
Andre Henrique← M. Braithwaite
76'
Mateus Carvalho← David
79'
João Victor
80'
Gustavo Martins↳ C. Pavon
86'
L. Augusto← Joao Victor

Possession

64%Vasco

Shots

31Vasco

Pass accuracy

54%Vasco

Statistics

VascoGremio
Overview
64%Possession36%
31Total Shots9
1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.94
12Corners2
16Fouls15
Shots
31Total Shots9
7On Target4
12Off Target4
12Blocked1
15Inside Box5
16Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
515Total Passes303
461Accurate Passes234
90%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
0.73Goals Prevented0.73
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Gremio

Vasco DA Gama and Gremio drew 1-1 in Serie A on July 19, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Freitas (64'), Gustavo Martins (80').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (64%) and registered 31 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.