Gremio 2–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

F. Amuzu 84'

Carlos Vinicius 51'

11/20/2025

Serie A · Round 34Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gremio51%

×Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Gremio

1.50

Vasco DA Gama

0.90

Gremio creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

0.85

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Gremio

1.61

Vasco DA Gama

0.94

allows per match

Gremio

0.85

Vasco DA Gama

1.38

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio-0.16scores less

Vasco DA Gama+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

77%

Gremio or Vasco DA Gama

74%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

49%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

26%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

78%

Gremio 2+ goals

44%

Gremio 3+ goals

19%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

59%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

23%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

69%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.61 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.94 + Gremio defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gremio scores more

51%

level

26%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

23%

Gremio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Amuzu

Gremio · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

42'

43'

44'

45+4'

46'

Victor Luis← Lucas Piton

51'

Carlos Vinicius↳ C. Pavon

54'

Cauan Barros

67'

Joao Lucas← Marcos Rocha

69'

Thiago Mendes← Cauan Barros

69'

David← N. Moreira

73'

G. Cuellar← F. Cristaldo

73'

Alysson← C. Pavon

80'

GB← P. Vegetti

81'

Camilo Reijers← Arthur Melo

81'

Andre Henrique← Carlos Vinicius

84'

F. Amuzu↳ Dodi

87'

Matheus Franca← Coutinho

90+1'

Alysson

90+4'

Lucas Esteves← F. Amuzu

90+4'

Leandrinho←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioVasco

Overview

37%Possession63%

24Total Shots5

1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.26

5Corners3

12Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots5

9On Target2

7Off Target2

8Blocked1

13Inside Box3

11Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

357Total Passes621

308Accurate Passes561

86%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

0.99Goals Prevented0.99

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

Gremio beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 in Serie A on November 20, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Vinicius (51'), F. Amuzu (84').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 24.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama