Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vasco DA Gama

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gremio

Mateus Carvalho 37'

David 24'

Gustavo Martins 68'

4/14/2024

Serie A · Round 1Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Vasco DA Gama61%

×Draw22%

Gremio18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.92

Vasco DA Gama

1.92

Gremio

0.92

Vasco DA Gama creates 109% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.63

Gremio

0.73

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.11

Gremio

2.20

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.32scores less

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

82%

Vasco DA Gama or Gremio

78%

Draw or Gremio

39%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

36%

Gremio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

85%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

57%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

30%

Gremio 1+ goals

60%

Gremio 2+ goals

23%

Gremio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

78%

Gremio (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.63 + Gremio defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gremio attack 0.73 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

61%

level

22%

Gremio scores more

18%

Vasco DA Gama at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

David

Vasco DA Gama · F

8.0

Match Events

14'

Gustavo Martins← W. Kannemann

16'

RossiPenalty cancelled

17'

Rossi

24'

David

37'

Mateus Carvalho↳ Rossi

43'

Diego CostaPenalty cancelled

46'

João Pedro← Diego Costa

58'

Gustavo Nunes← Y. Soteldo

58'

Nathan Fernandes← C. Pavón

64'

Rayan← Rossi

64'

João Victor← G. Medel

65'

Juan Sforza

68'

Gustavo Martins

74'

João Pedro← P. Galdames

74'

Zé Guilherme← Cuiabano

86'

Adson← David

87'

R. Rojas← Paulo Henrique

90+8'

Lucas Piton

90+6'

João Victor

90+1'

João Pedro Galvão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoGremio

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots9

0.90Expected Goals (xG)1.24

3Corners5

19Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target2

7Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

446Total Passes504

382Accurate Passes440

86%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.77Goals Prevented-0.77

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1