Gremio 1–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Y. Soteldo 57'

7/28/2024

Serie A · Round 20Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gremio51%

×Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.94

Gremio

1.53

Vasco DA Gama

0.94

Gremio creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.68

creates per match

0.96

0.91

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Gremio

1.68

Vasco DA Gama

0.96

allows per match

Gremio

0.91

Vasco DA Gama

1.39

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.26scores more

Vasco DA Gama+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

77%

Gremio or Vasco DA Gama

74%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

49%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

26%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

78%

Gremio 2+ goals

45%

Gremio 3+ goals

20%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

61%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

24%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

69%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.91 · 18 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.68 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.96 + Gremio defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gremio scores more

51%

level

26%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

23%

Gremio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Y. Soteldo

Gremio · F

8.0

Match Events

1'

Mateus Carvalho

35'

Lucas Piton

45+7'

Cristian Pavón

46'

R. Rojas← E. Rodríguez

46'

D. Payet← Philippe Coutinho

57'

68'

69'

69'

70'

Leandrinho← Lucas Piton

71'

GB← Maicon

72'

Gustavo Nunes← C. Pavón

79'

Paulo Henrique

83'

M. Arezo← F. Cristaldo

88'

J. Rodríguez← Paulo Henrique

90+4'

Pepê← Dodi

90+4'

Natã← João Pedro

90+3'

Fábio← M. Villasanti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioVasco

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots13

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.88

8Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots13

3On Target1

7Off Target8

10Blocked4

10Inside Box5

10Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

271Total Passes243

169Accurate Passes129

62%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3