Vargas Torres 0–0 Atlético Vinotinto

Vargas Torres

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Vinotinto

10/9/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 7Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vargas Torres45%

×Draw31%

Atlético Vinotinto24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vargas TorresExpected goals in this matchAtlético Vinotinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.77

Vargas Torres

1.17

Atlético Vinotinto

0.77

Vargas Torres creates 52% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

0.81

0.73

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Vargas Torres

1.15

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

allows per match

Vargas Torres

0.73

Atlético Vinotinto

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw

76%

Vargas Torres or Atlético Vinotinto

69%

Draw or Atlético Vinotinto

55%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

20%

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

69%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

33%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

54%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

65%

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vargas Torres scores more

45%

level

31%

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

24%

Vargas Torres at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vargas

Atlético

Manager: J. Estacio

Manager: L. Soler