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Vargas Torres vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
J. Narvaez 70'
E. Yepez 49'
P. Vidal 90' (pen)
C. Pincay 65'
6/5/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 12Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vargas Torres49%
×Draw29%
Atlético Vinotinto22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.27
Atlético Vinotinto
0.75

Vargas Torres creates 69% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.36
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.68
Atlético Vinotinto
1.19

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
78%
Vargas Torres or Atlético Vinotinto
71%
Draw or Atlético Vinotinto
51%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
72%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
36%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
53%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.36 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Vargas Torres defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
49%
level
29%
Atlético Vinotinto scores more
22%

Vargas Torres at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
E. Yepez
65'
C. Pincay
70'
J. Narvaez
90'
P. VidalPenalty
Vargas
Atlético
J. Estacio
Manager: J. Estacio
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs Atlético Vinotinto

Vargas Torres and Atlético Vinotinto drew 2-2 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 5, 2025.

Goals: E. Yepez (49'), C. Pincay (65'), J. Narvaez (70'), P. Vidal (90' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.