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Atlético Vinotinto vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
9/10/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 3Estadio Arena CHUBB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto64%
×Draw22%
Vargas Torres14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Vinotinto
1.80
Vargas Torres
0.68

Atlético Vinotinto creates 165% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 52 away

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto
2.31
Vargas Torres
0.60

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto
0.75
Vargas Torres
1.29

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw
86%
Atlético Vinotinto or Vargas Torres
78%
Draw or Vargas Torres
36%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
38%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
27%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
49%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
15%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
83%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more
64%
level
22%
Vargas Torres scores more
14%

Atlético Vinotinto at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
Atlético
Vargas
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler
J. Estacio
Manager: J. Estacio

Match Recap: Atlético Vinotinto vs Vargas Torres

Atlético Vinotinto and Vargas Torres drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Arena CHUBB in Quito.