Atlético Vinotinto 2–1 Vargas Torres

Atlético Vinotinto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vargas Torres

H. Garcia 73'

G. Corozo 24'

E. Yepez 29'

3/27/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 2Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto62%

×Draw23%

Vargas Torres14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético VinotintoExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.67

Atlético Vinotinto

1.71

Vargas Torres

0.67

Atlético Vinotinto creates 155% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

2.31

creates per match

0.59

0.75

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto

2.31

Vargas Torres

0.59

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto

0.75

Vargas Torres

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw

86%

Atlético Vinotinto or Vargas Torres

77%

Draw or Vargas Torres

38%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

36%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

51%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

24%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

49%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

15%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

81%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

62%

level

23%

Vargas Torres scores more

14%

Atlético Vinotinto at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

G. Corozo

29'

E. Yepez

73'

H. Garcia

Atlético

Vargas

1

16

30

4

14

41

40

8

10

9

80

12

33

26

⚽

21

4

5

3

7

10

9

24

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

8Zambrano16Vidal97Cangá6Sánchez40Porozo2Piñeiros11Kouffaty18Bonilla13Paz50Conforme58Macías

Manager: J. Estacio

Vargas Torres substitutes

7Allyson11Cárdenas17Díaz22Montezuma3Lastra5Vernaza12Padilla13Arana18Montes88Guerrero53Bautista50Cangá

Match Recap: Atlético Vinotinto vs Vargas Torres

Atlético Vinotinto beat Vargas Torres 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 27, 2025.

Goals: G. Corozo (24'), E. Yepez (29'), H. Garcia (73').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Atlético Vinotinto vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Vinotinto vs Vargas Torres