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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Kalmar FF — Superettan 2018

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
5/25/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Paskbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC31%
×Draw28%
Kalmar FF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.06
Kalmar FF
1.28

Kalmar FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58
Kalmar FF
1.40

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.16
Kalmar FF
0.53

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
59%
Varbergs BoIS FC or Kalmar FF
72%
Draw or Kalmar FF
69%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
12%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
65%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
29%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
9%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
72%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
37%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
43%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Kalmar FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kalmar FF attack 1.40 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
31%
level
28%
Kalmar FF scores more
41%

Kalmar FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 0–0 Kalmar FF

Varbergs BoIS FC and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in Superettan on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Paskbergsvallen in Varberg.