Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalmar FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2018

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
8/10/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF51%
×Draw23%
Varbergs BoIS FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.83
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.23

Kalmar FF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
2.07
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58

allows per match

Kalmar FF
0.87
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.59

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
74%
Kalmar FF or Varbergs BoIS FC
77%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
49%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
29%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
84%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
54%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
28%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
71%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
35%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
67%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.07 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.83

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Kalmar FF defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
51%
level
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
26%

Kalmar FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Kalmar FF 2–0 Varbergs BoIS FC

Kalmar FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-0 in Superettan on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.