Kalmar FF 3–1 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Varbergs BoIS FC

2/22/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Lindsdals IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kalmar FF46%

×Draw23%

Varbergs BoIS FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.38

Kalmar FF

1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.38

Kalmar FF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.31

creates per match

1.76

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kalmar FF

2.31

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.76

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.00

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

70%

Kalmar FF or Varbergs BoIS FC

77%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

54%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

83%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

52%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

75%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

40%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

60%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.31 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + Kalmar FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

46%

level

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

30%

Kalmar FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff