Varbergs BoIS FC 0–0 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

4/30/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 5Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC37%

×Draw26%

Kalmar FF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.35

Kalmar FF

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 114 away

1.10

creates per match

1.17

1.56

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.10

Kalmar FF

1.17

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.56

Kalmar FF

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

63%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Kalmar FF

74%

Draw or Kalmar FF

63%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

17%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

74%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

39%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

15%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

74%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

39%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

50%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kalmar FF attack 1.17 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

37%

level

26%

Kalmar FF scores more

37%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Lindner

Varbergs BoIS FC · D

7.5

Match Events

6'

Romarinho

20'

Eliton Junior

39'

Luke Le Roux

46'

J. Karlsson← A. Motaraghebjafarpour

59'

N. Shamoun← D. Hümmet

73'

R. Gojani← A. Lindahl

76'

M. Sainte← V. Karlsson

76'

R. Tranberg← O. Alfonsi

79'

Ö. Pektas← A. Al Hamlawi

86'

Maxime Anne Marie Sainte

88'

O. Stanisic← Y. El Ouatki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsKalmar

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots6

5Corners2

24Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots6

2On Target0

7Off Target4

5Blocked2

6Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

363Total Passes461

261Accurate Passes357

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

24Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2