Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo — Superettan 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Varbergs BoIS FC62%
IFK Varnamo17%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Varbergs BoIS FC creates 112% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Varbergs BoIS FC ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches
IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.67 + IFK Varnamo defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.01
IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Varbergs BoIS FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Varbergs BoIS FC substitutes
Falkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoIS
Vasteras SK FK
Oddevold
Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SK
Orgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United Nordic
Osters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
TrelleborgIFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Varbergs BoIS FC host IFK Varnamo on Friday, 8 May 2026 at 17:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2025/2026 season.
Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 3–2 IFK Varnamo
Varbergs BoIS FC beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 in Superettan on May 8, 2026.
Goals: I. Vidjeskog (32'), G. Broman (56'), H. Andersson (74'), B. Zulovic (90'), J. Nilsson (90').
The match was played at Paskbergsvallen in Varberg.