IFK Varnamo 1–0 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varbergs BoIS FC

M. Antonsson 87'

9/17/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 23Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IFK Varnamo40%

×Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.50

IFK Varnamo

1.60

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.25

1.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.20

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.25

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

64%

IFK Varnamo or Varbergs BoIS FC

76%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

60%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

20%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

80%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

47%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

22%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

78%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

44%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

53%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.20 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.25 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

40%

level

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

36%

IFK Varnamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

P. Vaitsiakhovich

IFK Varnamo · G

8.5

Match Events

27'

Wenderson

36'

Andre Boman

47'

Ismet Lushaku

58'

A. Johansson← G. Mensah

59'

Luke Le Roux

60'

Oliver Alfonsi

71'

Eliton Júnior← Filipe Sissé

71'

D. Krasniqi← O. Alfonsi

73'

R. Tihi← Wenderson

73'

W. Kenndal← H. Näsström

87'

M. Antonsson↳ A. Magashy

90'

C. Vindehall← A. Zeljkovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKVarbergs

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots13

3Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target2

1Blocked6

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

467Total Passes337

370Accurate Passes238

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1