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IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
Unknown 19'
A. Al Hamlawi 66'
Y. El Ouatki 42'
3/11/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ljusseveka Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IFK Varnamo31%
×Draw23%
Varbergs BoIS FC45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.41
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.73

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.82
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.00

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.00

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
55%
IFK Varnamo or Varbergs BoIS FC
77%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
69%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
14%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
76%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
41%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
17%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
82%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
52%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
41%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.82 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 2.00 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
31%
level
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
45%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
19'
28'
37'
42'
Y. El Ouatki
66'
A. Al Hamlawi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: IFK Varnamo 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 11, 2023.

Goals: ? (19'), Y. El Ouatki (42'), A. Al Hamlawi (66').

The match was played at Ljusseveka Konstgräs in Värnamo.