Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Varbergs BoIS FC37%
IFK Varnamo40%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Varbergs BoIS FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 + IFK Varnamo defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.64
IFK Varnamo attack 1.44 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
IFK Varnamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
IFK Varnamo substitutes
Mjallby AIF
Hammarby FF
Gais
IFK Goteborg
Djurgardens IF
Malmo FF
AIK Stockholm
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
BK Hacken
Halmstad
IF Brommapojkarna
Degerfors IF
IFK Norrkoping
Osters IFIFK VarnamoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Varbergs BoIS FC host IFK Varnamo on Saturday, 19 August 2023 at 15:30. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Allsvenskan: Varbergs BoIS FC 0–3 IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 in Allsvenskan on August 19, 2023.
Goals: M. Bustos (16'), V. Bergh (29'), E. Bećirović (90+5').
IFK Varnamo controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 14.
The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.