Vanspor FK 1–1 Pendikspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Vanspor FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pendikspor

Bikoue 37'

Y. Fidan 85'

10/18/2025

1. Lig · Round 10Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vanspor FK46%

×Draw27%

Pendikspor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Vanspor FK

1.42

Pendikspor

1.02

Vanspor FK creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

1.27

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.43

Pendikspor

0.78

allows per match

Vanspor FK

1.27

Pendikspor

1.40

-1.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Vanspor FK-1.23scores less

Pendikspor-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

73%

Vanspor FK or Pendikspor

73%

Draw or Pendikspor

54%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

22%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

76%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

41%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

17%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

64%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

27%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

63%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.43 + Pendikspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pendikspor attack 0.78 + Vanspor FK defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

46%

level

27%

Pendikspor scores more

27%

Vanspor FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Bikoue

Vanspor FK · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

28'

37'

44'

46'

B. Kor← A. Traore

46'

Rogerio Thuram← A. Karademir

56'

Đorđe Denić

62'

H. Akman← B. Karadeniz

62'

H. Maldar← E. Gokce

69'

Jonson Clarke-HarrisPenalty cancelled

70'

Z. Jevsenak←

82'

E. Secgin← Jefferson

82'

G. Bitin← H. Yesil

82'

A. Ugur← J. Clarke-Harris

85'

Y. Fidan↳ M. Wilks

87'

A. Vlachomitros← M. Ozcan

88'

Đorđe Denić

88'

Đorđe Denić

90+7'

Görkem Bitin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VansporPendikspor

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

253Total Passes385

178Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2