Pendikspor 3–5 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Pendikspor

FT

3 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Vanspor FK

E. Durak 90'

G. Türkdoğan 88', 84'

S. Cengiz 62'

Y. Demir 58'

U. Şen 49', 22', 2'

11/14/2020

League #205 · Kirmizi - 10Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pendikspor38%

×Draw23%

Vanspor FK38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PendiksporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

Pendikspor

1.62

Vanspor FK

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

1.67

1.57

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pendikspor

1.57

Vanspor FK

1.67

allows per match

Pendikspor

1.57

Vanspor FK

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw

62%

Pendikspor or Vanspor FK

77%

Draw or Vanspor FK

62%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+

19%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals

80%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

48%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

22%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

80%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

48%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

50%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 1.57 + Vanspor FK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Vanspor FK attack 1.67 + Pendikspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pendikspor scores more

38%

level

23%

Vanspor FK scores more

38%

Pendikspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

22'

33'

49'

54'

Y. Hacımustafaoğlu← F. Cerlek

55'

M. Alioğlu← Mehmet İstemi

58'

62'

69'

69'

70'

71'

76'

77'

82'

C. Özdemir← S. Küpeli

84'

G. Türkdoğan

88'

G. Türkdoğan

90'

E. Durak

Pendikspor

Vanspor

1

Demircan

96

⚽

▼

93

30

23

8

▼

Özdemir

10

⚽

Cengiz

55

▼

Arman

24

▼

Küpeli

65

Aydin

9

⚽3

▼

61

22

12

27

4

6

▼

İleri

11

▼

İstemi

15

▼

Cerlek

14

▼

Müjde

18

⚽2

Türkdoğan

21

▼

Balcı

Manager: H. Kalpar

33'▲S. İyik←▼Ö. İleri

54'▲Y. Hacımustafaoğlu←▼F. Cerlek

55'▲M. Alioğlu←▼Mehmet İstemi

70'▲E. Durak←▼A. Müjde

71'▲S. Çetin←▼O. Balcı

Pendikspor substitutes

8İyik19Hacımustafaoğlu77Alioğlu9Durak5Çetin13Cinpir7Ataklı29Akkaya52Çağlayan54Genç

Manager: S. Akgül

69'▲Y. Yıldız←▼U. Şen

69'▲S. Komi←▼A. Özdemir

76'▲C. Halil←▼B. Arman

77'▲İ. Güner←▼Y. Demir

82'▲C. Özdemir←▼S. Küpeli

Vanspor FK substitutes

11Yıldız98Komi7Halil5Güner27Özdemir45Bağ35Gökoğlan21Bilgin