Vanspor FK 2–0 Pendikspor: Result & Stats

Vanspor FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pendikspor

S. Cengiz 59'

B. Arman 47'

3/18/2021

League #205 · Kirmizi - 29Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vanspor FK47%

×Draw28%

Pendikspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.93

Vanspor FK

1.37

Pendikspor

0.93

Vanspor FK creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.17

Pendikspor

0.86

allows per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Pendikspor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

75%

Vanspor FK or Pendikspor

72%

Draw or Pendikspor

53%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

22%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

75%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

40%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

16%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

61%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

24%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

65%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.17 + Pendikspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pendikspor attack 0.86 + Vanspor FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

47%

level

28%

Pendikspor scores more

25%

Vanspor FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

46'

46'

47'

58'

59'

64'

71'

77'

80'

E. Çağlayan← U. Sönmez

80'

M. Alioğlu← Ö. Kandemir

Vanspor

Pendikspor

61

Aydın

22

Kaya

27

▼

Kandemir

25

▼

Pekgöz

5

Çetin

10

Sokullu

79

▼

Sönmez

84

Taşkesen

1

▼

Aydın

18

Türkdoğan

54

▼

Genç

45

Bağ

88

▼

Özkan

95

Emir

93

▼

4

23

8

20

▼

Kayacı

55

⚽

Arman

65

Aydin

77

▼

Say

Manager: S. Akgül

21'▲S. Cengiz←▼B. Gök

46'▲S. Komi←▼S. Kayacı

58'▲Y. Demir←▼E. Özkan

77'▲B. Çakır←▼A. Say

Vanspor FK substitutes

10Cengiz98Komi96Demir6Çakır1Demircan30Hanlı54Köstereli38Yurdakul9Şen28Kuşat

Manager: Ş. Yıldırım

46'▲E. Durak←▼B. Genç

64'▲Ö. Çelik←▼E. Pekgöz

71'▲A. Arslan←▼B. Aydın

80'▲E. Çağlayan←▼U. Sönmez

80'▲M. Alioğlu←▼Ö. Kandemir

Pendikspor substitutes

9Durak12Çelik17Arslan52Çağlayan77Alioğlu13Cinpir32Yılmaz99Öztürk