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Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Pendikspor
Pendikspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
V. Soldo 16'
E. Bars 4'
3/6/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 29Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Pendikspor59%
×Draw22%
Vanspor FK19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pendikspor
1.89
Vanspor FK
0.95

Pendikspor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pendikspor
1.77
Vanspor FK
0.88

allows per match

Pendikspor
1.01
Vanspor FK
2.01

finishing

Pendikspor-0.91scores less
Vanspor FK+0.92scores more

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw
81%
Pendikspor or Vanspor FK
78%
Draw or Vanspor FK
41%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+
35%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals
85%
Pendikspor 2+ goals
56%
Pendikspor 3+ goals
29%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
61%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
25%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)
76%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 1.77 + Vanspor FK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.89

Vanspor FK attack 0.88 + Pendikspor defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pendikspor scores more
59%
level
22%
Vanspor FK scores more
19%

Pendikspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
S. KitsiouPendiksporPendikspor · D
8.0

Match Events

4'
E. Bars
16'
V. Soldo↳ B. Karadeniz
31'
Jefferson Junior
64'
Xesc← A. Traore
82'
Thuram
84'
G. Bitin← J. Clarke-Harris
86'
S. Destici← E. Bars

Possession

Pendikspor: 51Vanspor: 4951%Pendikspor

Shots

Pendikspor: 12Vanspor: 412Pendikspor

Pass accuracy

Pendikspor: 80Vanspor: 8349%Pendikspor

Statistics

PendiksporVanspor
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots4
7Corners1
15Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots4
5On Target1
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
7Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
385Total Passes394
308Accurate Passes326
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

Pendikspor and Vanspor FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on March 6, 2026.

Goals: E. Bars (4'), V. Soldo (16').

Pendikspor controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Pendik Stadyumu in Istanbul.